The 2016 US Presidential Election Cycle and the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election Cycle seem to show similar things, that having a large amount of cash does not result in electoral victory. In 2016 two of the wealthiest campaigns in US history, the Jeb Bush campaign and the Hillary Clinton campaign were soundly defeated by a significantly poorer campaign, the Donald Trump campaign. Hillary Clinton also almost lost to the poorer campaign of Bernie Sanders in the same cycle. It was partly thanks to Democratic National Committee intervention that Clinton was able to secure victory in the primary elections against Sanders. In the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election Cycle, the richer campaign of Jon Corzine lost to the significantly poorer campaign of Chris Christie. Both elections show that having more money than an opponent will not ensure electoral victory.
Return HomeThe 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election Cycle also shows that the number of contributions is more important than the individual value of those contributions. Chris Christie had far more donations than Jon Corzine, even though Jon Corzine’s donors (including Corzine himself) gave more money to their candidate than Christie donors. These results are not totally confirmed by the 2016 Presidential Election Cycle. While Bernie Sanders almost defeated Hillary Clinton thanks to his larger number of lower value donations, Donald Trump contributed 66% of his campaign’s money and won the general election. Whether more donations or higher value donations is better is still inconclusive. It could also be that some other force is the main driver behind electoral victory.
Return HomeWhile the other results show that having money is not necessary to win, having no money makes it almost impossible to win. The poorest candidates, like Jeff Boss or Brian Levine, received very few votes in the primary elections. This fits with conventional campaign wisdom that a candidate needs some money in order to win the election. Totally broke campaigns can not win elections as large as a Gubernatorial election. While money is not an indicator of imminent victory, it is a indicator of potential victory. The two candidates who moved on to the general election, Chris Christie and Jon Corzine, both had the wealthiest campaigns in their respective primary elections.
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